Matched Betting Arithmetics - Bet365 Offer
Hello guys, it’s been a while. In this post I’m discussing an offer I found on bet365:
Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on any race televised live on ITV Racing and you can have a risk free bet to the same stake (up to £50) on the next race broadcast live on ITV Racing.
What it says is basically if your back bet on winner (on selected races odds over 5) wins, you get (on top of your usual winnings) a free bet that you can use in the next selected race. It is somewhat similar to the risk-free bets, only there you get the free bet if your back bet loses, here if it wins. The principle however is the same, so we can lock in for guaranteed profit.
So if we win the back bet at the bookmaker, we also get f worth of free bet. Assuming we pay c commission on the exchange and r f of the bonus can be extracted with a subsequent bet, the profit breakdown is as follows:
Bookie | Exchange | |
---|---|---|
Back Bet wins | + b1 (o1 - 1) + f r | - b2 (o2 - 1) |
Lay Bet Wins | - b1 | + b2 (1 - c) |
The equation:
b1 (o1 - 1) + f r - b2 (o2 - 1) = b2 (1 - c) - b1
Solving
b2 = (b1 o1 + f r) / (o2 - c)
That is, by making a b2 lay bet, we can ensure profit for either outcome.